xtcian

I haven't been following anythhing other than our local races. Jim Leach is safe in the house, and no Senators are up for re-election yet.

Iowa seems to be a key state though judging by the number of RNCC attack ads I see on TV. These are so bad that any Republican who is not a nutbag should be embarrassed.

There's a guy, Bruce Braley (D) who is on record as being anti-war, so they're running commercials claiming that he's been endorsed by the Communist party because some Commie newspaper mentioned him. Now A) there aren't more than a handful of Communists in Iowa and B) So what?

Basically it's the standard Republican tactic -- never argue the issues, make everything about Ad Hominem attacks. I wonder when the good Republicans of this country are going to wake up to the fact that their Grand Old Party is run by liars, thieves, and doctrinaire shitbags.

Republican retain both houses by very slim margins. House by three seats and Senate by two.

Other predictions:

Rumsfeld will resign in three weeks, which is Karl Rove's October Surprise. James Baker will probably step in at DOD.

Massive bombing campaign in Afghanistan will most likely start immediately after Rumsfeld steps down.

I'll play

After 2000 and 2004 I am totally pessimistic about the intelligence of the people in this country and the regressive righties ability to manipulate the fears of the masses into success. Taking a cue from your last weeks missive about hitting the bottom, I don't think we as a country have hit bottom yet with the current regime. I think that no matter how badly the current government screws over the regular people in this country, no matter how many of their cronies are enriched and empowered, and no matter how many wars of choice this current junta leads us into they will somehow manage to shift the issues to "those Dems will raise taxes and take away your hard earned money" and "We can't allow gays to get married, its a crime against Gawd!!!!!"

I'm not sure when we will hit bottom as a country, I'm betting it will take something like the Great Depression to wake the masses up from the political somnambulist state they have been in for the last decade. The corruption of the current officials just has not affected enough people on a personal level that they are going to "throw the bums out" of office. It will take a draft, a full blown depression, and millions of home foreclosures to wake most people who are living their happy, quiet suburban lives.

So in summation the regressives will trot out the old "They will raise your taxes" and "We can't let gays get married" and it will work. Sure there will be some democrat gains in both houses, but I fully expect a regressive majority in both houses of congress.

Final Prediction:
House of Representatives: Republican 6 vote majority
Senate: Republican 2 vote majority

And I hope I'm wrong about everything I wrote above.

House goes to Dems by 5 seats
Senate stays with Repubs holding 2 seats.

No resignations in the Bush Admin until after January, if at all.

Interesting House race here in Wake county.. Brad Miller D has had a wide lead in the past but this year has a Pub candidate that is spending lots of money using the slogan
"protect our borders". Pub (Robinson) is allowing people to think Miller might be gay b/c he does not have children. (he is married)

What are people willing to believe?

I am hearing a lot of discontent among the Bush supporters, but it is easy to pile on him NOW! I think Pubs keep narrow majorities in both chambers. I do not see Pubs voting for Dems.

Which power base will get out the vote for off year election? My guess is us liberals will not turn out in droves.

The Other Lee wrote "I'm betting it will take something like the Great Depression"

That's what it took to get the Pubs out of office in the 1900s!

"The Music Man"?

If it is going to take a Depression to rid us of Republicans, please do not hold your breath! Have you taken a glance at any and all financial indicators? The economy is absolutely booming by any traditional measure and the Dow is skyrocketing!

Both parties have some loonies running them. Yes, I know Karl Rove and some of his tactics drive Dems crazy. But, I never hear any mention of the Dems who were convicted of slashing tires on election day in 2004 in Ohio. Or, the out-of-the-blue Foley fiasco currently playing.

Before anyone accuses me of defending Foley, I am NOT. Throw the bum out. But, it is interesting that the other day one of us posters here was glad that is was not an issue of homosexuality because now the myth of homosexuality = perversion can be erased. I don't necessarily agree with the myth but, to quote famous scribe Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friend." Seems Foley has pulled a McGreevy on us.

Predictions:
UNC-Miami: As Clubber Lang would say, it'll be nothing but "pain" for the Heels.

Senate & House: Mama did not raise no fool. The last time things looked rosy for Repubs was 1994, but Repubs keep winning anyway. I ain't betting against them. Repubs hold both.

The Republicans will keep the House by 6 seats.

The Democrats will gain the Senate by 2 seats.

The NC 11 race between Taylor and Shuler won't matter because they are almost equally conservative.

The 2006 midterm election is a tough nut to crack. It is undeniable that there is a palpable dissatisfaction with the Republican Leadership in the House and the Senate. Congress’ approval rating is in the mid 20s. That’s a dismal statistic. The Mark Foley page scandal has only intensified this discontent with the House leaders. Will this discontent be enough to overcome a general apprehension by many voters to change party leadership during war time? Moreover, are voters ready to turn on their Member of Congress in favor of a Democratic candidate? This dynamic is still very fluid and will remain so for the next month.

The Democrats need 15 seats in the House. Humor me while I break it down by seats.

I am confident that the Democrats will pick up plenty of seats in the House. The following open seats are virtually in the bag due to scandal and the favorable ballot situation – TX 22 (DeLay), OH 18 (Ney), FL 16 (Foley), and PA 10 (Sherwood). 4 seats down, 11 seats to go.

The NRCC has pulled up their stakes in AZ 08. Rep. Jim Kolbe will not endorse the Republican and Gabrielle Giffords, the Democrat, is running way ahead. That’s another seat. 10 seats to go.

Two additional open seat races in Colorado and Iowa are looking very good. In both races the Republican incumbent is running for Governor. The race in CO 04 to replace Rep. Beauprez looks favorable for the Perlmutter, the Democrat. The race in IA 01 to replace Rep. Nussle also looks favorable for the Democrat, Bruce Braley. Perlmutter and Braley are up by double digits in the latest polls. 8 seats to go.

Indiana could yield the Democrats three seats – IN 02 (Joe Donnelly over Rep. Chris Chocola), IN 08 (Sheriff Brad Ellsworth over Rep. Hostettler) and IN 09 (Baron Hill over Rep. Mike Sodrel). Let’s assume that Hostettler pulls it out again like he always does. It's the bloody eighth of Indiana and it's a brutal district for Democrats. It should be noted, however, that Hostettler was down by 15 percentage points in the last poll. Chocola is toast and Baron Hill is going to leg this one out. I have no doubt. That’s two more seats. 6 seats to go.

There are two other Ohio races that will be extremely tough for the Republicans to retain – OH 15 (Rep. Deborah Pryce v. Mary Jo Kilroy) and OH 01 (Rep. Steve Chabot v. John Cranley). Kilroy and Cranley polls are encouraging. The Ohio Republican Party is in shambles because of the economy and Governor Taft’s scandals. Furthermore, Bush’s approval ratings are in the toilet in Ohio. These are two seats ripe for the taking. I’ll take them. 4 seats to go.

To make a long story short, the Democrats need to win four of the following seats to take control of the House. Charlie Cook, who is the best in the business at analyzing political races, has all of these races in the toss up category. They are too close to call. Here are 11 races.

CT 02 - Simmons v. Joe Courtney
CT 04 - Shays v. Dianne Farrell
CT 05 - Johnson v. Chris Murphy
FL 22 - Shaw v. Ron Klein
IL 06 - Roskam v. Tammy Duckworth
KY 04 - Davis v. Ken Lucas
NM 01 - Wilson v. Patsy Madrid
NY 24 - Meier v. Mike Acruci
NC 11 - Taylor v. Heath Shuler
PA 06 - Gerlach v. Lois Murphy
VA 02 - Drake v. Phil Kellam

I should note that there are plenty of other races that are getting very interesting in places of the country that are not traditionally favorable to Democrats. The at-large race in Wyoming comes to mind. I wouldn't be surprised if on election day the Democrats win one or two seats that nobody predicted. Also, the list above does not include the three additional PA races - PA 07 and PA 08.

I predict that the Democratic Party will pick up 20 to 22 seats in the House and Nancy Pelosi will be the next Speaker of the House (unless Denny Hastert resigns this week and the R's pick a place holder until January 3!)

"Basically it's the standard Republican tactic -- never argue the issues, make everything about Ad Hominem attacks. I wonder when the good Republicans of this country are going to wake up to the fact that their Grand Old Party is run by liars, thieves, and doctrinaire shitbags."

Funny, listen to any conservative radio or TV and you hear almost the same exact thing said about the other side.

As for Congress, there is always the "throw the bums out, but not my bum" mentality. Sure, there is plenty of scandal to go around, but with falling gas prices and the Dow in record territory, I don't think the local angle is enough to cause the net loss of 14 republican seats, which is necessary for the Dems to seize control in the House.

The Senate may be a different animal, but I still don't see the Reps losing 6 or more.

So, my official prediction is:

House - Reps by 10
Senate - Reps by 3

When I read this I thought about "Madlibs". Just insert "Party Name" and preferred nouns to make your own scathing attack.

"Basically it's the standard _______ tactic -- never argue the issues, make everything about Ad Hominem attacks. I wonder when the good _________ of this country are going to wake up to the fact that their _____ Party is run by liars, thieves, and doctrinaire shitbags."

House- Rep by 2
Sen- Rep by 2

Miami 47 UNC 3
NC State 23 FSU 17
Clemson 55 Wake 28
Bama 63 Duke 3

Republicans will retain the House and Senate.
With the Dow booming, unemployment being so low, and the economy being so good that Bush\'s tax cuts are obviously working and the rate of the deficit has been greatly slowing since tax revenue is increasing.

I also expect the masses to wake up to the fear of the Lefties like Al Gore and Co. who have been cashing in on the global warming fear, it has gotten so bad that not even the Lefties on CNN can back up their global warming fear with facts anymore, just yesterday Miles O\'Brien was having to rely on the fictional Hollywood global disaster movie, “The Day After Tomorrow” during his attempt at debating. Last week, Senator Inhofe made a speech on the floor of the Senate ripping the media for their ridiculously lopsided coverage of the global warming issue. Most of the media chose to ignore his speech, rather than dwell on what can only be described for them as a colossal embarrassment. He also pointed out how that CNN anchor was reporting in 1993 about the imminent threat of global cooling, it\'s like CNN is just making this crap up as they go along.
After a month, Katie Couric is in last place over on the cBS network, so it just seems the American public is really starting to pick up on the lies of cBS and CNN and Gore and they\'ve had enough.

The big race I\'m watching is down in Pennsylvania where Senator Murtha is involved in a close race with Irey, she might pull an upset and send the old goofball Murtha to a retirement home.

The race here in Connecticut between Lieberman and Lamont is long over with, Lieberman has a double-digit lead on Lamont, Greenwich millionaire prep boy Lamont is history.

So all the republicans in the comment section still asleep, it seems.

The RNCC personal attack ads are misleading, and as near as I can tell seek only to rally their wingnut base. They've spent millions of dollars to try and dig up 'dirt' on Democratic candidates.

This year, Democrats have it relatively easy. All they have to do in their ads is to point out how often their opponent votes with Bush. Any pictures of their opponent with Bush is just a bonus.

This is a hard one to call.

It would seem, based on the obvious, that the Democrats would be shoo-ins, but taking into account - that a few electronic voting machines will be hacked by the Republicans to steal elections (especially a problem in Ohio); that the American masses are easily manipulated by Fear, a Republican specialty; that Rove has yet to spring his October Surprise, which will be predicated on scaring the bejezus out of everyone; that gas prices will magically stay low (till after the election); and that, in general, Bush will do whatever it takes to maintain his Imperial Regime – appearances may be deceptive.

On the other hand, as a bellwether, Big Business, the main stream media, and many true Conservatives (not radical neocons) are seriously hedging their bets, so they obviously think that a takeover is possible. MSNBC has repeatedly allowed Keith Olberman to more or less accuse Bush of high crimes and misdemeanors. Even Chris Mathews is getting a bit feisty. The Buchanan Brigade is disgusted with Bush and the Republican Congress. Lou Dobbs – no matter what you may think of his opinion on immigration – attacks Bush as a complete dufus on other matters such as the war and homeland security, night after night.

The point being that besides the conservatives turning against Bush, the Powers That Be in The Media are allowing these views to be presented, which they rarely did two years ago. Even the ultimate insider kiss-ass journalist, Bob Woodward, has broken his blood oath of omerta in “State of Denial”, and beaten Bush like a gong.

One must also keep in mind that all politics are local, and from that point of view the Democrats are definitely a step up. If it’s “as the economy goes so goes the election”, anyone who thinks that a high stock market or “low unemployment rate” means progress to the many voters whose mortgage rates are rising while they can’t even afford health insurance and are making $7 an hour or are unemployed is living in a glass bubble.

The key is getting out the vote, which may be a problem for the Democrats. Then again, it may be a problem for the Republicans, too.

My prediction: Democratics take the House by one. The Senate remains Republican by one.

ok i say :
dems take house by 4 votes
dems take senate by 1

House: Dems by 2
Senate: Dems by 1 (if lieberman doesn't caucus with republicans!)

Democrats take the House, probably by ten or more votes.

The Senate is deadlocked at 49 Dem, 49 R, with Bernie Sanders voting with the Dems (making 50), Dick Cheney stinking up the place to break ties (making potentially 50 or 51), and Joe Lieberman playing kingmaker to whichever party kisses his ass with the most tongue action. Watch for him to threaten to change his affiliation, and thus control of the Senate, at least once a month.