7/11/07
Three examples:
- In the late '80s, Napa Valley in California suffered another outbreak of phylloxera, a tiny winged insect that feeds upon the roots of grapevines, ultimately suffocating them. It had already destroyed the wine business around 1900, and to get rid of it, growers had to uproot every single vine they ever grew and set the soil on fire. It was predicted that the California wine industry was essentially over. The result? Napa rattled off the ten best years in wine history and surpassed France as the best winemaking region in the world.
- Whenever after-school specials and movies about the horrors of anorexia and bulimia are broadcasted, anorexia and bulimia rates go up among the viewing audience.
- In September, 2001, a terrorist attack in downtown Manhattan killed almost 3,000 people and filled the air with toxic ash. Letters filled with anthrax were mailed to midtown. Radiological sensors were set up all around the city to protect against dirty bombs, and the place where the World Trade Center used to stand is still a giant, gaping hole. The result? Real estate prices have tripled in some downtown neighborhoods, even as the real estate bubble burst almost everywhere else in the country.
Why do I mention these things? No other point than to say "shit is complicated." In fact, shit is so complicated that your instincts about anything not in your field of expertise is, essentially, worthless. Perhaps there was a time when blacksmiths knew that hitting harder made the metal flatter; perhaps there was a time when smoke meant fire, but that era is long gone. Now we are living in an epoch of stunning complication, where specialists are needed to demystify the intricacies of everything you use.
Don't believe me? Michelle's boyfriend Rich, who is a brilliant car mechanic in his own right, says the back seats of most SUVs have their own air filter. The air filter is for the fan that cools the 5-7 wires that flow into the seat, controlling various functions. This is for the back seat, the one nobody is sitting in. It has an air filter.
The computer you're reading this on? The SSRI you took this morning? The citywide traffic light timers that arranged your trip to work? Forget about it. It's using math you cannot fathom. Your job is concentrate on the tiny piece of the world where you're the expert, and leave everything else to everyone else.
And yet, here in the choppy whirlwind of the most complicated time in Earth's history, we are being ruled by people with ABSOLUTELY ZERO INTEREST in anything requiring nuance. If things get too complicated, that monkey-jowled fratboy of a President nods off. His minions speak in Neanderthal sentence fragments and reduce all concepts to a binary, moronic choice between good and evil. There are many reasons why these guys are the worst people at the worst time in history, but the way they play upon America's subconscious desire for simplicity may be the most tragic.
Me? I absolutely LOVE the fact that things are complicated and unpredictable when it comes to human, biological and technological behavior. I am turned on by the vast array of outcomes and have always harbored crushes on those people who dedicate their lives to a singular passion of figuring it out. If somebody specializes on Volvos, the strange quarks of subatomic particles, the upper gums of primates, predictive cosmology, even tax law minutiae, I'm hooked. I feel relieved that someone is taking care of that part of the world.
Our understanding of the world is frustratingly inconsistent. I've mentioned my and Tessa's "eggs and butter syndrome," whereby the same product can be alternately vilified and sanctified every five years - hell, you might have noticed it happen to echinacea just last month. The best you can do is stay abreast of current research and live long enough for vaccines; the rest is a crapshoot.
I mean, I get it. It's satisfying when things work the way they ought to. It's nice when you plant seeds and then radishes grow. It's pleasant when the cause and effect make perfect sense. It's also kind of boring, and over the long haul, nature hates it. Nature likes weird aberrations that help creatures adapt, odd left turns that make platypuses and the Alps.
It'd be nice to think that killing every Iraqi insurgent and keeping huge military bases in Saudi Arabia would make your average Muslim teenager think twice about striking at America. It'd be so much easier to think that everyone on death row committed their crime and killing them would make criminals stop behaving badly. It takes a brave, intelligent person to stand up in front of the United States and say "actually, shit is WAY MORE complicated."
We needed a great leader, and instead we got a fucking chimp. A chimp with a two-note xylophone he hits with a bone. "GOOD" says one note. "BAD" says the other. And we're stuck singing that two-note nursery rhyme until some goddamn adults show up.
It's not just our rulers that are turned off by anything complex - there are voters who are, too. As a journalist, I feel it's my job to explain things in as simple a way possible so people can understand complex ideas, but we still have to hope they are reading or listening. And now more people are turning to unverified newsblogs where anyone can post anything.
And, yay Michele for having a new boy! Maybe that's why she's not blogging. ;)
"... the way they play upon America's subconscious desire for simplicity may be the most tragic."
Not just our desire for simplicity, but our FEAR. Especially our fear.
Daughter and I watched "Bowling for Columbine" on our DVR yesterday, so between that and the current "level orange threat" in effect (oooo!), I'm feeling even more sour and cynical than usual.
Sigh. Keep on keepin' on, Ian. We need to hear; we need to THINK.
Ian, of course the reason we are "stuck" with two-note leaders is that, for most of us, the simple answers, the black-white concepts, the un-nuanced outlook is the most comfortable. You are spot-on about the complexity of the world today. In fact it was always complex, and always shifting, and always nuanced, even in the time of the dinosaurs. Had it not been so, the world would still be inhabited by brontosaurs and triceratops instead of humans and Labrador retrievers, and the sky would be full of pterodactyls instead of sparrows and hawks.
Still most of us are most comfortable with the easy answers, and the predictable guidelines and rules, even when they are crap. What we need as leaders are those men and women who can make us comfortable with nuance, with thinking in a different way. I know it’s possible. I had great teachers, from time to time, who taught me that flawed men like Jefferson and Franklin et al. could still create a wondrous new nation; that the physical rules of musical harmony are important to know, but can only become art when those rules are bent; that our math in base-ten is the result of being born with ten fingers to count on, but that other number systems not only work, but work better for certain tasks; that everything on a printed page is not necessarily true; that it’s OK to paint a green sky and color outside the lines.
These were the teachers who taught me to accept change and nuance and complexity without feeling threatened or uncomfortable. We need leaders who can guide us through the most complex time in the history of a complex planet, and make us feel energized and motivated by the experience. Instead we have leaders at the top who, on their two-note xylophone, keep hitting the "fear" note and promising the "safety" note if we just follow the simple beat of fear.
Honestly, Ian, if that person, those persons who knew how to play all the notes came a long, I could support her/him in a heartbeat. Even a Republican.
Good blog, Ian. Sorry to ramble redundantly…
I'm voting for Mom for President!
Ian, I'm getting denied for questionable content. I'm really not saying anything bad - what's the deal?
hey ian your chimp is on tv right now banging the xylophone. just thought i'd cheer up your day. ;)
I think this is a great post. Shit IS complicated. Way more complicated than we can possibly fathom, especially with regard to areas beyond our own expertise.
That said, do you see the irony?
Neva- sometimes embedded in your comment is the name of a banned drug name - like "ci@lis" or something. Send me the comment and I'll look at it!
Okay, everyone, here's my naughty comment.
I agree with you to a point but feel that there is always room for a good generalist. Of course, as a generalist physician I would feel that way, but really, not every problem needs a super speci@list. In my experience a speci@list is often too short sighted to deal with many vague complaints. They only see their specific area, they only rule out what they normally deal with and they often aren't thinking about the person as a whole.
In the ideal world, everyone would have a great generalist physician who can be their health advocate, translate for them, educate them and find the right speci@list if that's what they need. They would also listen, think and, most importantly, care. As a country, we need that in our leaders as well. There is a place for a speci@list, but, as your Mom says, our country needs a the super family doc who will hold our hand through a crisis, empathize with our fears and concerns but make sure we get the best care available to get better and stay better.
how funny that the word specializt is blocked!
Great post Ian.
I agree 1000% with you and your Mom.
You all both hit the nail on the head with perfectly stated observations of the world we live in.Growing up in the 50's, educated in an all girls' Catholic school, I definitely lived in a black and white world. Everything was either good or bad, and for a child it made things very simple. However, the 60's changed things drastically and nothing seemed to fit perfectly in just those 2 categories. I often found myself navigating unfamiliar terrain where the old rules didn't always apply, and causes often produced unpredictable results.
My real education between 1972 and 1980. I had 4 children who over the years have beautifully taught me how to "accept change and nuance and complexity." No other teacher compares. The journalist, the lawyer, the musician, and the stage manager each represent fields that I love but am not capable of mastering. In their willingness and courage to "color outside of the lines," to bend their crafts in pursuit of new or different results, they allow me and others to see new and different angles of old familiar prisms where "fear" and "safety" don't apply.
We need gutsy new leaders who are willing to go against the grain and not live in fear the results.
You and your Mom get my vote!
Neva you are a wild one!
Mediocrity has become acceptable to the American people. I'm really afraid that the "adults who show up" won't be elected. That is my biggest fear, and I'll probably play that note over and over again for the next 16 months. The people haven't changed since they re-elected the chimp in 2004, and they haven't felt the pinch personally unless they've lost someone they love in Iraq. Sorry to be a pessimist, but it will take a miracle to restore my faith.
Emma--my first thought after reading Ian's Mom's comment was: "I'm nominating Linda in '08!"
As usual--succint, true, and beautifully written. Thank you Ian.
Very thought-provoking post, Mr Williams. I agree with the sentiment! But as a chimpanzee, I must protest your choice of "chimp" as epithet for the idiot running (or not, rather, and leaving the real "running" and "deciding" to his scary deputy) the U.S. these days.
We chimps are in fact quite intelligent creatures; we grow weary of the anti-Dubya folk frequently likening the not-dear leader to us due merely to an unfortunate similarity in countenance. (I daresay that most genuine chimpanzees are MUCH more handsome than that loser!)
For the record, I probably read more in a day via the flash cards that my human trainer, Mandy, shows me than that buffoon reads in an entire month!
Respectfully submitted on behalf of smart, progressive chimps everywhere,
Mr Chimps
I doubt you will catch this comment...coming so late and all but a few thoughts.
first, GWB=chimp: agreed
second, the fear of the unknown is humanities most terrifying fear. Why do you think the "dark" and deep water are so terrifying? The unknown. The more we know the less we understand and often this leads to action paralysis. Our minds play out multitudes of scenarios, some turn out good some bad but in the mean time, time is passing and no action is taking place. So, I guess I'm trying to say that the complexity of all actions has lead many a thinking man down the path of lethargy and inaction. Perhaps this is a great think, since nothing happens, but perhaps it is not.Third, my only hope left is that from the turmoil, death and destruction created by this administration, that we manage to elect some thinking folks who manage over the next hundred years to grow something good out of this pile of shit.