2/11/08
While in North Carolina, I accidentally used the toothpaste of someone who had a fever of 103 degrees, then got into a plane full of people hacking up pieces of lung, splattering bacterium all over us from every angle. I told Tessa it'd be a miracle if I got out of there without getting sick, and alas, things went as planned, and I got sick.
My nephew - he with the toothpaste - complained of his calves hurting as we walked to the Dean Dome, and today as I walked out to the beach to clear the hell from my forebrain, I noticed my calves hurt too. What the hell kind of virus is that?
A quick one, thankfully - I'm almost back to speed now. In the past, this would have felled me for a week, but not now that I'm on the regimen. Still, my blogging muscles are weak and must resort to a CODE WORD:
What is your prediction for the following: Who wins the Democratic nomination, who wins the White House in November, and by how much?
Posted by Ian Williams at February 11, 2008 11:11 PMBarack gets the most delegates, but Hillary steals the nomination and loses to McCain. Can't say was thrilled by any in the field this year, but...whattya gonna do. McCain is the closest one to the middle, he may do well.
I went on record on this blog a month or two ago and said it would be Obama vs. McCain and Obama would narrowly win.
I still stand by that prediction but the key with Obama is going to be if he's willing to go negative, ad wise. I know most Democrats claim to be above the fray when it comes to negative campaigning but it's the way things are done. CNN's been running an in-house documentary about negative campaigning which is fascinating.
I don't think the Dems should stoop to the levels Bush himself did to knock out McCain in 2000 but some skilled anti-McCain ads would help.
Obama seems to have the momentum right now. The convention should be interesting....
My rational side discourages me by insisting McCain will beat either Obama or Clinton. Too much fear in this country. Blah.
Ian, I had a dream last night that I was in a club, right at the stage edge, watching your band play! LOL. Maybe I need to spend more time offline... my realities are blurring. ;-) (You guys were great in the dream, BTW.)
1. Barack sweeps the small contests.
2. Barack wins outright in Ohio and Pennsylvania. He nearly catches Hillary in Texas.
3. Superdelegates start leaving Hillary like rats from a sinking ship.
4. Barack still lacks enough delegates for a first ballot nomination. Seating Florida and Michigan would put Hillary near or over Barack's delegate count, but still not enough for her to win a first ballot.
5. Pressure mounts on Hillary to bow to popular pressure and allow Baracks nomination to be unanimous.
6. Hillary has her Caucasian Chalk Circle Moment -- should she tear the party in half, or let it go to preserve it?
What happens in step 7 is not clear to me. I hope Hillary is committed enough to the country and the party to back off at this point, but I honestly don't know.
If Hillary twists arms and pushes to get Florida and Michigan seated in order to win the nomination despite losing a popular vote and pledged delegate count, the parallels with the Republicans will be obvious. Can she win an election having told the base, independents, and young voters to fuck off?
Can McCain hope to win without the social conservatives?Bottom line: Obama V McCain is a clear choice. Clinton V McCain is yet another hold your nose affair.
you've probably seen this, but i thought this was a genius style of negative advertising, and best i can tell it was done without the Obama campaign's knowledge....
Ian,
Get some Zycam.. as soon as you start feeling symptoms, use it.. it really helps...in addition to your regimen.
I like Obama to win the nomination... I like Obama winning narrowly over McCain. McCain's trump card might be another terrorist attack on US soil prior to the election. Gosh, I don't want to think about that. Would Al Q want to sway the election in that manner? Is the war on terror in its current version good or bad for Al Q?
The establishment wrote their "McCain beats Hillary" headline some time in 2006, and Clinton already had her gracious concession speech prepared. All of them get mad enough to eat glass whenever it looks like those pesky voters are doing something to derail their foregone conclusion. Witness the Washington State Republican chair stopping the vote count in Washington and just calling the state for McCain with 87% of the vote counted and Huckabee tied with him.
Therefore, I support the nice Irish candidate, Barry O'Bama. If we can nominate him, the McCainiac will carry fewer states than Bob Dole did in 1996. The surprise will be that O'Bama carries some deep Southern states due to a combination of high black turnout, Republican disgust for McCain, and an upsurge in economic liberalism in reaction to the Bush Recession.
If Sen. Obama is in the general, he wins. Hope resonates (and brings in an entirely new swath of voters) -- even if he really doesn't have much more experience running anything than those of us who read this blog.
If Sen. Clinton gets the Dem. nod, the general could easily go to McCain. Hate resonates, too.I'll add a GOP question, if I may. Does McCain take Huckabee as his VP?
Yikesamighty!, and it looks like it could indeed end up being a real-live pissin'(whilst standin') contest, in which case (or the other either), best of most luck to the Dems. Indeed big contests in VA. today and alas all of us in Blue still can't do with the he who can fly Ty guy, who's once again nursing it tonite @ C'ville. Ergo and else, root.
Obama wins the nomination and beats McCain when the Repub base pulls an AuH2O on him and doesn't turn out in force. On the other hand, if Clinton wins, Repubs will turn out just to beat her down, and McCain will win.
I'm a Libertarian registered as Unaffiliated here in NC due to the impossible ballot access hurdles the General Assembly has thrown up. Assuming the Republicrats here prevent any third party candidates from getting on the ballot, I'll vote Obama if he wins the Democratic nomination. If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination I'll either abstain or vote McCain, while holding my nose because of the war.
Maybe because, like you Ian, I'm still suffering from the all consuming medical diagnosis of SSOV (some sort of virus), I'm feeling particularly pessimistic and want to say that regardless of who gets the Dem nom, McCain wins, but especially if he takes Huckabee as his VP to help bring in the social conservatives (which, because I think McCain is not long for this world - will leave us with Pres Huckabee - heaven help us).
I think it will be a closer race if it's Obama instead of Clinton but I still think it'll be McCain unless he blows his top or something very strange happens.Why do I think this (other than being exhausted and pessimistic today)? Because I think when it comes down to it many people in this country, when they get behind closed doors. will choose the older, more experienced white guy every time. I can tell you stories galore of people I know who will do this and lots more that I think will even though they say they won't.
What T.J. said...
obama wins and then wins it all. as a republican (gasp!) i'm finding myself pulling for hillary because we can beat her. not going to happen though...
too bad one of the dems couldn't suck it up and take the vp or you guys would already be picking out carpet in the white house.
Hillary would make it close -- capturing a majority of the womens vote, but losing the mens vote by a much larger margin -- but still fail against McCain. Although the conservative base doesn't like him, they hate her even more. Besides, the war on terror is their number one issue and that will dawn on them once November rolls around.
Obama would lose to McCain in a landslide. He's great at generalities, conveying inspiration and hope, and the like ("Yes we can!" will become a punchline). But he has no substance. That will kill him in the general election. Even should he finally start to get specific about his "plans," that will doom him as well, since he's too far to the left (with a voting record to show for it). He's futher left than anyone other than Kucinich. I can't wait to hear him explain on national television his support for giving illegal aliens drivers license. That didn't go over well even in blue state NY.
The only way Republicans lose this election is for McCain to pick Huckabee (which is unfortunate for me since I like the guy) or another moderate, or he blows his top as he is prone to do.
P.S. to Ken: Bush was not the one who did the despicable push polling against McCain in 2000. I know everyone likes to hate the prez, but....
Wow, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I sure hope the Republicans on this blog are right!
McCain wins because he is closer to the middle. The Dems still can't win the middle 60.
[20% hardcore each party, 60% in the middle]
Matt- re: Negative Push Polling in 2000.
I know Bush wasn't the only culprit but he obviously benefitted the most from it and yet there McCain is, a lap dog for one of the men who painted him as a few sandwiches shy of a picnic.
Ken,
It's true that Bush benefitted, as did party members and interest groups opposed to McCain (he's made a lot of enemies in the Republican ranks, which should be of some comfort to Democrats if he does go on to win the general election). I would hardly call McCain a "lap dog" to President Bush, however. No doubt their fortunes are intertwined -- Bush needs McCain to carry on the Iraq project (the success or failure of which will come to define his presidency) and McCain needs Bush's support to win over the party base, who have become disenchanted with the Arizona maverick from years of abuse.
I hope McCain wins, but to be honest I'm not so sure Hillary will fold in the war even if she does pull it out. I hope not to test that belief, though...
Matt said all I was going to say.
Did you watch tonight? The weather here in MD was horrible, and yet I dragged myself to the polls and voted for Obama. . . me and lots of folks. Hillary went down in flames. I can't believe it. I bet she is ripping Bill a new one right about now. . . (sorry to be crass, but I really think that he is such a hindrance for her. No one can shut him up, and Americans seem to be sick of bloated Bill). I have mixed feelings about it all. I admire Hillary, and I would almost vote for her IF NOT FOR HER HUSBAND. And, no, I can't separate the two.
I am even starting to like McCain. Either way, good things lie ahead.